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Market Analysis and Cycles

On-chain metrics, the halving, mining economics and the macro layer, and how to read each of them yourself.

General information only. Nothing in this curriculum takes your objectives, financial situation or needs into account, and it is not personal financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose money.

Pillar being written

The pillar for this cluster is not published yet, so there is no article to read here. Everything else on this page is real: the working title it is being written under, the articles that sit beneath it, how the cluster is prioritised, and where the same material lives on collectiveshift.io today.

What is known about this cluster

Pillar working title
Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle? How to read the data yourself
Curriculum position
Cluster 4 of 9
Status
Routed and designed. Awaiting the pillar.

What this cluster covers

4 supporting articles sit under this pillar. None is published yet, so none of them is linked below.

  1. In production

    On-chain metrics explained: NUPL, MVRV and cost basis

    What NUPL, MVRV and cost basis each measure, how to read them, and where each one misleads.

  2. In production

    What the Bitcoin halving actually does to price

    What the halving changes mechanically, what has happened around past halvings, and why the two are not the same claim.

  3. In production

    Bitcoin mining economics and the production-cost floor

    How mining economics work, what a production cost estimate is built from, and what a cost floor does and does not imply.

  4. In production

    How macro (rates, DXY, liquidity) drives crypto

    How interest rates, the dollar index and liquidity conditions feed through into crypto, and how to follow them.

See all nine clusters

Where this material lives today

Each cluster maps to a section of collectiveshift.io covering the same ground. These are the pages answering this one today. They open on the live site.

Every link above was checked on 3 August 2026.

Free to read, as each cluster lands

Each cluster is free to read the day it is published. While the rest is being written, the free training covers the 7-step system on video.

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